Sorry for the tardiness of this post. I know the playoffs have already started, but I've been swamped in work and Dave has been swamped with porn. Anyway, these picks were made before the series' started. Before we get going, I'd like to extend a congratulations to whoever won the WNBA championship. OK, now back to sports - here we go: Tommy with the East preview, and Dave with the West.
Eastern Conference Preview
Ladies and Gentlemen, the NBA Eastern Conference is back. Gone are the days when the Western Conference Finals decided the NBA champion. Gone are the days when a team could have a washed-up Dikembe Mutombo as its second-leading scorer and still make it to the finals (as the Sixers did in 2001). Gone are the days when Eric Dampier’s corpse could be propped up for a playoff run and the team doing so still be taken seriously – actually, I take that last one back. But the point remains: this year, the Eastern Conference is just as strong at the top as its western counterpart, and in fact I fully expect the NBA champion to come out of the East. More on that to come later, but for now here are Manstone’s NBA Playoffs picks for the Eastern Conference:
ROUND ONE
Bulls vs. Pacers
Indiana has about as much chance of winning this series as Tyler Hansborough does at fitting in in Compton. The only chance the Pacers have rests on the admittedly fairly plausible occurrence that Kyle Korver decides to do what all of the other white players in the league have done and joins their team (thus forcing the Bulls to play 4 on 6). I don’t see this happening, however, and assuming all the games are played 5 on 5 I expect the Bulls to sweep.
There are many reasons this will happen, a few of which I will expound upon. One, the Bulls are infinitely better defensively than their opponent. Their team defense is the best in the league – it even gives Keith Bogans an opportunity to do something productive. The Pacers, meanwhile, have way too many white players to be able to guard anybody effectively. I don’t know about you, but I’m pretty sure I could beat Jeff Foster one-on-one. Two, the Bulls are much tougher and have a deeper bench. The toughness began to take shape in the offseason with the installation of intense coach Tom Thibedeau and has continued to build throughout the season. Every player on that team has a gritty playing style, led by the guys at the two most important positions on the court in center Joakim Noah and some point guard named Derrick Rose. The bench guys like Ronnie Brewer, Kurt Thomas and Taj Gibson all give strong, effort-filled minutes when they get their chance. Even Rasual Butler, widely considered the worst player in the league, has had a few good moments. The Pacers, by contrast, are a bunch of pussies. Danny Granger has made the executive decision to not really give a shit and hasn’t stepped foot in the paint since the 08-09 season, preferring to launch long jump shots instead. Speaking of the paint, I think Roy Hibbert is so thin that he could be pushed out of it by one of Noah’s exhalations after a nice bong rip. Three, the Bulls have Derrick Rose. I can’t see anybody on the Pacers being able to guard him; Rose should average 35 in this series. The pick: Bulls win in 4 – you heard it here first.But don't beat yourselves up too much Pacers fans - at least your team will undoubtedly win the Jimmer sweepstakes in June.
Heat vs. Sixers
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| Bibby and House: Roughly equivalent to Stephen Hawking and Christopher Reeve in terms of defensive ability. No matter- the Heat will still sweep |
But it won’t matter. The Heat are too good and too battle-tested. They have learned to cope with the fact that Joel Anthony might have to shoot the ball at the basket once every few games (not a pretty sight), and that they stooped low enough to offer Juwan Howard a spot on their bench for the season. They are probably the hungriest team in the league: the Big Three to prove that they aren’t a flop, and everyone else to prove they aren’t just a bunch of misfits who suck at basketball. And while even I could break a Mike Bibby-Eddie House double team, Wade and Lebron are such devastating perimeter defenders that they make up for their teammates' deficiencies. And, they have all kinds of playoff experience on this team, and veteran leadership out the ass - I’ll have to check my sources, but I think Juwan Howard has been in the playoffs a ton of times since he was drafted in 1963. Point is, the Big Three are simply too good. I like the Heat in another sweep.
Celtics vs. Knicks
A lot of folks are calling for the Knicks pull off the upset here. I don’t see it. Yes, I know that in a one-game situation they have enough firepower with Carmelo and Amare to beat anybody. But I don’t think their offense, and certainly not their defense, can hold up for an entire series against a disciplined team. They still haven’t meshed as a group since the Carmelo trade (which I saw as high-risk, high-reward: they had a good thing going and were playing their best basketball in a long time, but if they do figure out how to integrate Carmelo into a team offense rather than his current ball-stopping, one on one game, they will in the long run be better than before the trade). In order to win, the Knicks will need everything to go right for the entire series: they will need to keep Amare out of foul trouble, find an efficient third scoring option, ensure that team managers can find a satisfactory hiding spot for Carmelo’s weed, etc. The list is too long. Plus, you know the Celtics will have their shit together. They’ve been doing this for years. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen can still score, and suddenly Rondo is flying under the radar. People are forgetting that he was an early-season MVP candidate and has played the best basketball of his career in the playoffs. He’ll be ready. I like the Celtics in 6.
This is a tough series to pick as I really don’t think either team is that good. However, I think the Hawks are worse, so I’ll go with Orlando. Dwight should dominate down low against the smaller Al Horford and, God help us, Jason Collins. Orlando is the better shooting team, and I like them at least slightly better at every position except small forward (we’re counting Josh Smith as a small forward here). Remember when Joe Johnson used to be good? So do I. It seems like a long-ass time ago. Now I think I’d rather have Jason Richardson on my team for a playoff series. OK, now I’m rambling. The pick: Magic in 7.
CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
Bulls vs. Magic
Two MVP candidates in Derrick Rose and Dwight Howard go head-to-head. Take Rose and the Bulls in this one - there's a good chance JJ Redick will be guarding Rose for a fair amount of this series. You need to know nothing more. The Pick: Bulls in 6.
Heat vs. Celtics
It's fitting that these two would meet in the playoffs. After all, they were the consensus top two teams in the East going into the season, they had that epic opening-night game in Boston, they have the common bond that comes from mistaking Eddie House for a basketball player and signing him to the team's roster, etc. Two months ago this would have been an incredibly hard series to pick; now, I have no trouble doing so. The Celtics are showing signs of their age (Haven't we been saying this for years? But now it's really happening, I swear) while the Heat are peaking and coming together as a team. I think Boston's playoff savvy and the leadership of the Big 4 will make it a series, but Lebron will be too much to handle. The Pick: Heat in 6.
CONFERENCE FINALS
Bulls vs. Heat
This should be a great series between the top two seeds in the East. The Bulls epitomize the team-centric, one-star-and-solid-role-players-who-play-defense mold. The Heat on the other hand have shitty role players who don't play defense, but their 2.5 star players have proven incredibly hard to deal with of late: they've won 17 out of 20 heading in to the playoffs. The Bulls swept the regular season, but it seems as if the Heat are the most confident team in the league right now. As hard as it is for me to pick against my team, especially when they're going up against a team whose roster includes Jamal Magloire, Juwan Howard, Eddie House and Mike Bibby, but I've got to. The Pick: Heat in 7.
CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
Bulls vs. Magic
Two MVP candidates in Derrick Rose and Dwight Howard go head-to-head. Take Rose and the Bulls in this one - there's a good chance JJ Redick will be guarding Rose for a fair amount of this series. You need to know nothing more. The Pick: Bulls in 6.
Heat vs. Celtics
It's fitting that these two would meet in the playoffs. After all, they were the consensus top two teams in the East going into the season, they had that epic opening-night game in Boston, they have the common bond that comes from mistaking Eddie House for a basketball player and signing him to the team's roster, etc. Two months ago this would have been an incredibly hard series to pick; now, I have no trouble doing so. The Celtics are showing signs of their age (Haven't we been saying this for years? But now it's really happening, I swear) while the Heat are peaking and coming together as a team. I think Boston's playoff savvy and the leadership of the Big 4 will make it a series, but Lebron will be too much to handle. The Pick: Heat in 6.
CONFERENCE FINALS
Bulls vs. Heat
This should be a great series between the top two seeds in the East. The Bulls epitomize the team-centric, one-star-and-solid-role-players-who-play-defense mold. The Heat on the other hand have shitty role players who don't play defense, but their 2.5 star players have proven incredibly hard to deal with of late: they've won 17 out of 20 heading in to the playoffs. The Bulls swept the regular season, but it seems as if the Heat are the most confident team in the league right now. As hard as it is for me to pick against my team, especially when they're going up against a team whose roster includes Jamal Magloire, Juwan Howard, Eddie House and Mike Bibby, but I've got to. The Pick: Heat in 7.
Western Conference Preview
Spurs vs. Grizzlies
Memphis actually tanked a couple games down the stretch to make sure they got SA in the first round, which was strange at the time, but obviously has worked out with the Griz stealing Game 1 on the road. It also didn’t hurt that Manu Ginobili suffered a gruesome arm injury and missed that game. I actually think Rudy Gay’s season ending injury last month has improved the Grizz, as they’ve become one of the most physical teams in the league since. A Gay being a softie? You don’t say! (I kidd, I kidd). That’s all well and good, but the Spurs are the vastly superior and more experienced team. Even if they don’t get Manu back, I’ll take SA. The Pick: SPURS IN 6
Thunder vs. Nuggets
This should be one of the more competitive first round matchups, as both teams have looked good since making major midseason trades. The Thuggets (JR Smith and Kenyon Martin=scum of the earth) have one of the best records in the league since shedding Melo, and OKC added a proven playoff center (their biggest hole pre-trade) and cleared up more PT for rising stars Serge “Iblocka lot of shots” (see what I did there?) and James Harden’s beard. Denver might have 8 of the best 11 players in this series, but unfortunately, OKC has the best 2. The Pick: THUNDER IN 7
Mavs vs. Blazers
Everybody seems to be picking Portland in this one, and I tend to agree with them. Dallas is already up 1-0, but to get there it took one of JKidd’s best shooting games in years and some questionable officiating (PORT Coach Nate McMillan got docked 35k for bitching about it). The Blazers have two of the best Nowitzki defenders in the league with Gerald Wallace and Nic Batum, and luckily Andre Miller gets to guard the only point guard in the league slower than him. The Pick: BLAZERS IN 7
Lakers vs. Hornets
New Orleans has already won Game 1 as a write this, and I have to admit, I thought they were going to get swept. Without David West, they have no one who can score unless CP3 spoon feeds them. I actually had to just look up who their starting 2-guard is. Hmmm, it’s Marco Belinelli. Kobe might literally unhinge his mamba jaw and swallow poor Marco whole. The Pick: LAKERS IN 5
CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS
Spurs vs. Thunder
A matchup of the youngest, most exciting team in the league versus the oldest, most decrepit one. It’s like Kid Cudi versus Flavor Flav in a freestyle rap battle (ironically, Tim Duncan only listens to country). Who’s going to guard Durant for SA? Richard Jefferson? Matt Bonner?? I’m not a fan of those matchups. I love ol’ Timmy, but I think a scowling Kendrick Perkins will do a good job on him. With Ginobili’s health still up in the air, I like OKC. The Pick: THUNDER IN 6
Lakers vs. Blazers
Wes Mathews, Batum, and Wallace should do as well on Kobe as anybody, but I can’t see LaMarcus Aldridge’s and Marcus Camby’s skinny asses stopping the massive Laker front line. I mean, If Bynum, Gasol, and Odom were to stack on top of eachother, you’d need a Sherpa to climb to the top! Bazzzzing! Barring the off chance that Brandon Roy knees get holy grail water sprinkled on them and he returns to his all-star ways, I like LA in this series. The Pick: LAKERS IN 6
CONFERENCE FINALS
Lakers vs. Thunder
Last year an up and coming Thunder team took LA to 6 in the first round, and everyone said they were just a year away. Well, I think they’ll get their chance this year. The Thunder have three quality defensive bigs to match up with the Laker size, and Russell Westbrook will be able to run circles around the human parking cone known as Derek Fisher. I think this will come down to who is the better man between Kobe and Durant (I should say better basketball player. Obviously the rape charge-free Durant is the better man). The problem for Durant is that Ron Artest, who never misses the opportunity to throw a good elbow to your ribs or threaten your family, will be all over him from the opening tip. Kobe, on the other hand, will only have to deal with Thabo Sefolosha and James Harden. I give the edge to Kobe and the Lakers.
The Pick: LAKERS IN 7
That's all for now. Check back prior to Round 2 for more picks.
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